Best wishes for the people in the disaster area!

11 occurred in nine major earthquake northeast of Japan, not only to get out of the crisis is unprecedented in Japan cause social impact, and that is facing the risk of inflation to the global economy has cast a heavy shadow - International Finance market once again staged in August 2008 when the fall of Lehman's shares fell across the board there, commodity prices generally fall, "liquidity to avoid" the U.S. dollar and the yen caused the panic rose pattern. Fukushima nuclear power plant together with the leakage radiation is more to domestic and foreign investors on the future of the Japanese economy and the world economy, the possibility of second bottom add a lot of worries. So, we must ask: strong reaction to the market now will last long? China's economy will be severely drag? Will the world economy since the second-largest economy and third largest economies slow-down once again into a depressed state? The following, from Japan in the Northeast Economic Zone status of the global industrial chain, the nuclear impact of leaks on the strength of the Japanese economy and global capital flows onto the characteristics of the earthquake on Japan's domestic economy, China's largest trading partner and the world economy effect, which describes whether the short-term impact of the internal mechanism of the long-term, in order to determine whether the market provides a reasonable basis for over-reaction.

First of all, I think the Northeast today, inside and outside the economic consequences of the earthquake hazard is the largest nuclear power plant in Fukushima nuclear pollution. Despite this grave disaster to the Japanese society caused casualties and economic losses are enormous, but its Japanese manufacturing, the competitiveness of export industries and enterprises are not necessarily more than the impact of the Kobe earthquake in 1995 caused by huge negative impact. Today, because of support and the export competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing area mainly in three areas, Keihin area, Hanshin region and Kyushu regions. At present, the northeast region hardest hit by the economic performance of Japan will have to row in the middle and lower reaches of the location (Admittedly, in recent years, Northeast Japan, the pace of industrial modernization accelerated, many well-known companies within and outside the region established in Sendai and its production R & D base, etc.). The hardest hit Kobe in 1995, production capacity of only half a year of recovery, full recovery of the economy only two years, far better than the market was pessimistic expectations. Moreover, after 16 years of change in the degree of internationalization of Japanese companies has greatly improved ability to spread economic risk in Japan has increased greatly. If there is no further deterioration of the nuclear pollution, the Japanese industry's recovery and restoration of production capacity will not take too long.
 

However, if the worst situation occurs, that is a serious problem beyond the control of nuclear contamination, resulting in Japan had a large migration of population and industry, the situation, then this will take a huge financial cost of the "structural adjustment", may be the Japanese social panic shock: not only the global economy in Japan fell substantially, and the Japanese people panic selling bonds will leave the market price of Japanese government bonds plunged, triggering disgust "Japanese assets" of the domestic market their financial asset prices all the way down the panic phenomenon, the Japanese government will be forced to refinance can not afford "bankruptcy" stage. Of course, I believe that may be caused by nuclear contamination, "Sinking of Japan" before the crisis, the International Monetary Fund and the G7 countries as well as the major G20 members will join the ranks of aid. Otherwise, the economic power of the "exit" set off by the waves will be a serious threat to other countries, including China, the rhythm of the healthy operation of the economy.

In any case, from Japan's national character and economic base, the Japanese economy will not easily sink, and the market reaction today, many times over the financial capital may also want to change the price performance of seeking profits, so the decision-making departments and our the average consumer in the face of unexpected and major events, one should keep a clear head, to improve the whole society needs to get rid of the extraordinary events of crisis management capabilities. In this sense, we have seen the Japanese people the patience shown by the quality of the spirit Jordan 2011 men shoes and calm, these "soft power", especially in the face of serious crisis of the moment, even more than Japanese industry for many years to create the "hard power "to avoid potential disaster in front of the very chaotic situation and the resulting serious consequences of wrong decisions.